近日，上海财经大学高等研究院张同斌助理教授的合作论文“Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships”（合作者Pei Kuang, University of Birmingham；Li Tang, Middlesex University London and University of Essex；Renbin Zhang, 山东大学）在经济学领域权威期刊Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization在线发表。

高等研究院坚持政策研究与学术研究两手抓两手硬。2021年，研究员累计在《经济学（季刊）》、International Economic Review、Journal of Monetary Economics等国内外权威期刊上发表22篇论文，整体发文情况呈现稳健增长，助力“上财国际2.0”计划的推进和学校国际学术话语权的提升，为百年变局和世纪疫情的特殊时期贡献智库力量。

Abstract

Using survey forecast data, this paper studies whether professional forecasters utilize long-run cointegration relationships among macroeconomic variables to forecast the future, as postulated in stochastic growth models. Significant heterogeneity exists among forecasters. The majority of the forecasters do not use these long-run relationships. The results are robust across different groups, to addressing the multiple testing problem and to allowing for structural break.

张同斌，西班牙巴塞罗那自治大学博士毕业，现任上海财经大学高等研究院助理教授，研究领域为宏观经济学、金融经济学，研究成果发表于Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control、Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization等权威期刊，参与国家自然科学基金应急项目、专项项目等。

来源：微信公众号“上财高等研究院”

转自：中国经济学教育科研网

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