来源：ECONOMICS RULES

经济学研究人的决策以及社会运行的基本逻辑，过去几百年不管是对个人、企业还是政府的决策都产生了巨大的影响。经济学家凯恩斯曾说：“经济学家和政治学家的思想，不论它们正确与否，都比一般所想象的更有力量。的确，世界就是由它们统治的。实用主义者自认为他们不受任何学理的影响，其实他们经常是某个已故经济学家的俘虏。自以为是的当权者，他们的狂乱想法不过是从若干年前某个拙劣的作家的作品中提炼出来的。我确信，和思想的逐步侵蚀相比，既得利益的力量被过分夸大了。……或迟或早，不论好坏，危险的东西不是既得利益，而是思想。”

以下是著名的学术期刊《美国经济评论》杂志评选的过去100年在该杂志上发表的最具影响力的20篇经济学论文。排名不分先后，每篇文章附有下载链接。

1 "The Use of Knowledge In Society"

Publication date: 1945

Authors: Friedrich Hayek

Conclusion: Prices must be the focal point of all economic decisions.

Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/35.4.519-530.pdf

Source: AER

2 "The Cost of Capital, Corporation Finance and the Theory of Investment"

Publication date: 1958

Authors: Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller

Conclusion: A firm’s total market value is invariant to its borrowing behavior.

Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/48.3.261-297.pdf

Source: AER

3 "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?"

Publication date: 1981

Authors: Robert Shiller

Conclusion: Stock price volatility is far too great to be simply attributed to new information about future real dividends.

Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/71.3.421-436.pdf

Source: AER

4 "An Almost Ideal Demand System"

Publication date: 1980

Authors: Angus S. Deaton and John Muellbauer

Conclusion: You can predict household demand based on the relative costs of "subsistence" versus "bliss".

Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/70.3.312-326.pdf

Source: AER

5 "Uncertainty and the Welfare Economics of Medical Care"

Publication date: 1963

Authors: Kenneth J. Arrow

Conclusion: The health care market is too plagued by moral hazard and consumers' lack of information to be viewed as free.

Link: https://assets.aeaweb.org/assetserver/files/ 9442.pdf

Source: AER

6 "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs"

Publication date: 1973

Authors: Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

Conclusion: You can model what happens when consumers make decisions without knowing whether a price change also signals a relative price change.

Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/63.3.326-334.pdf

Source: AER

7 "The Role of Monetary Policy"

Publication date: 1968

Authors: Milton Friedman

Conclusion: There exists a "natural rate of unemployment," or the number of jobs a given economy can support.

Link: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/58.1.1-17.pdf

Source: AER

8 "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity"

Publication date: 1965

Authors: Avinash K. Dixit and Joseph E. Stiglitz

Conclusion: Product variety can influence the way the market dictates resource allocation. The market considers profits, while a social optimum takes into account the consumer's surplus.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/67.3.297-308.pdf

Source: AER

9 "A Theory of Production"

Publication date: 1928

Authors: Charles W. Cobb and Paul H. Douglas

Conclusion: You can figure out how much production a given amount of capital and labor can yield.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/18.1.139-165.pdf

Source: AER

10 "Optimal Taxation and Public Production"

Publication date: 1971

Authors: Peter A. Diamond and James A. Mirrlees

Conclusion: It is possible to set taxes that minimize distortions and disincentives, and eliminate production inefficiencies.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/61.1.8-27.pdf

Source: AER

11 "Capital Theory and Investment Behavior"

Publication date: 1963

Authors: Dale W. Jorgenson

Conclusion: Cost-of-finance (interest rates and equity yields) and taxes should drive investment decisions.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/35.4.519-530.pdf

Source: AER

12 "Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization"

Publication date: 1972

Authors: Armen A. Alchian and Harold Demsetz

Conclusion: Firms must continuously measure productivity. The market alone is not enough to generate peak output — strong management is also required, and firm's will benefit from devoting resources to it.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/62.5.777-795.pdf

Source: AER

13 "On The Impossibility Of Informationally Efficient Markets"

Publication date: 1980

Authors: Sanford Grossman

Conclusion: In a world of dispersed information, the equilibrium price can itself be a source of information to consumers.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/70.3.393-408.pdf

Source: AER

14 "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation and the Pattern of Trade"

Publication date: 1980

Authors: Paul Krugman

Conclusion: Standard comparative cost theory doesn't sufficiently explain trade.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/70.5.950-959.pdf

Source: AER

15 "Migration, Unemployment and Development"

Publication date: 1970

Authors: John R. Harris and Michael Todaro

Conclusion: In poor countries, individuals migrate from rural to urban areas.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/60.1.126-142.pdf

Source: AER

16 "The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society"

Publication date: 1974

Authors: Anne O. Kreuger

Conclusion: Tariffs are better for countries to enact than import quotas.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/64.3.291-303.pdf

Source: AER

17 "Economic Growth and Income Inequality"

Publication date: 1955

Authors: Simon Kuznets

Conclusion: Earlier phases of economic development are characterized by increasing income inequality.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/45.1.1-28.pdf

Source: AER

18 "National Debt In A Neoclassical Growth Model"

Publication date: 1965

Authors: Peter A. Diamond

Conclusion: External and internal government debt can potentially reduce capital stock in the long-run.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/55.5.1126-1150.pdf

Source: AER

19 "A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas"

Publication date: 1961

Authors: Robert A. Mundell

Conclusion: You can figure out the optimal number of entities for a given currency areas.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/51.4.657-665.pdf

Source: AER

20 "The Economic Theory of Agency: The Principal's Problem"

Publication date: 1973

Authors: Stephen A. Ross

Conclusion: There is a way to avoid moral hazard when you're paying people a lot of money.

Link: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/63.2.134-139.pdf

Source: AER

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